Identification of policy responses to minimise negative socio-economic impacts of an avian influenza epidemic in Indonesia

Project ID:

AH/2004/032

Collaborating Countries:

Indonesia

Commissioned Organisation:

University of New England, Australia

Project Leader

Dr Phillip Simmons
Phone: 02 6773 2314
Fax: 02 6773 3596
Email: psimmons@une.edu.au

Collaborating Institutions:

Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology (NTB), Indonesia
Disease Investigation Center Region VI, Indonesia
Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology (Bali), Indonesia
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia

Project Budget:

$399,641

Project Duration:

01/04/2006 - 31/03/2008

Project Extension:

01/04/2008 - 30/06/2008

ACIAR Research Program Manager

Dr Doug Gray

Project Overview

The costs of the recent outbreaks of avian influenza in Indonesia have been in lives lost, birds culled and economic disruptions. Quantifying the full economic costs through socio-economic research has not been undertaken. This is despite the need for such costings to be included in decisions on allocating funds. Such policy responses will be substantially aided by this research, targeting areas of uncertainty in relation to the direct and flow-on effects of a future outbreak and the intersection of policy initiatives relating to human health, bird management and indirect consequences to industries such as tourism.

Project Progress Reports

Year One

Four household surveys are central to the study: (i) 200 Balinese medium-size producers of broilers & layers and (ii) 200 Lombok medium-size producers of broilers + layers (iii) 600 Balinese smallholder producers of kampung chickens and (iv) 600 Lombok smallholder producers of Kampung chickens. The first two surveys, (i) and (ii), have been completed and the third is underway. The results of the first survey have been written up in a report that has been circulated (via the Program Leader) to others in the Program working in the avian influenza area for comment. The data from the second survey has been collated and checked and a report is being written. The third survey is being undertaken now (Sept. 2007) and is running three weeks behind schedule because the Indonesian government "locked out" Europeans from the poultry areas following two human deaths on Bali. The questionnaire for survey 4 has been written and circulated to others in the project for comment.

Interviews are scheduled of upstream & downstream agents & government officials using open ended questions to develop an understanding of linkages to the AI poultry problem in the poultry industry. The interviews are completed and reports written to draft stage. The Lombok report is close to being finalised and more interviews may be needed in bali.

The survey data will be used in a model of relationships between social, economic, epidemiological and policy state variables and likelihood of infection using cross-sectional analysis in a probit framework. The analysis completed for data from surveys 1 & 2.

The development of a Computable General Equilibrium model capturing the indirect economic effects of the avian influenza epidemic based on secondary data is underway. The first report is completed and further refinement of the model being undertaken.

The development of either a new food model capturing international linkages in the world poultry products markets and simulation of international economic impacts of different epidemiological effects has been undertaken. The work is completed and a report written and presented at a conference to obtain peer review.
Workshops are planned for early next year, 2008. Planning is proceding on deciding the dates and guest lists.