Fish in food: The critical role of fish in world food issues

• International Food Policy Research Institute, USA

Fish is an important component of what has been termed 'the next food revolution' - that rapid growth in consumption of animal products in developing countries over the past two decades which looks set to continue into the future. World fish consumption reached 14 kg per capita in 1996, double the level recorded in the early 1950s.
Total marine catches reached a plateau of 80-90 million tonnes in the early 1990s. Growing demand has raised serious questions about the sustainability of fish supply. Rapid changes in supply and demand have also affected the livelihoods of the poor, with aquaculture shifting from an activity providing income to the very poor to a profitable commercial enterprise. But there are good prospects for the growing aquaculture industry to benefit the poor, especially in countries such as India or China.
Fisheries and aquaculture are increasingly recognised as integral to the agriculture and food system. This project attempted to raise the profile of fish issues in national and global debates through the integration of fish into analytical models of agriculture and food.

The main goals of the project were: 1) to incorporate fish into the IFPRI-developed global food model (known as IMPACT) for making projections of world food prices and quantities; 2) to provide an analysis of the key role of aquaculture in the context of rapid changes in world demand for animal products (fish in particular).

The study team incorporated the fisheries sector into IFPRI's IMPACT model. This entailed adding eight extra commodities in supply and five in demand to the 22 already incorporated, focusing on the same 36 countries in regions already designated to divide global agriculture, but ensuring compatibility with FAO global fish groupings.

The key assumptions specified in the model were: a) income and populations growth rates for each country group; b) price, cross-price and income elasticities for each commodity and region; c) production response parameters such as supply price elasticity, area and yield growth trends, and feed and fishmeal requirement (noting amount of feed and fishmeal per kg of fish produced).

Projections from the model provided the context for exploring issues of: 1) nutrition, food security and poverty alleviation; 2) environmental sustainability and public health; 3) technology needs and prospects.

The project achieved its objectives, incorporating fish into the IFPRI suite of models and undertaking a broad assessment of changing demand. Researchers now have an outlook for fish into the future in a globalising food economy, and have analysed how the trends in the fish sector will affect the poor and impact on the environment during the next two decades. The study team produced the publication Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets, and two others: 1) Food Policy Report, Outlook for Fish to 2020: Meeting Global Demand; and 2) a policy brief, The Future of Fish: Issues and Trends to 2020 (see www.ifpri.org or www.worldfishcenter.org). These three publications comprehensively examine the changes in the fish sector, the forces driving those changes, the implications of the changes for fish consumption, production, prices, trade and the environment, and how the changes affect the world's poor.
Using a state-of-the-art model of the World Food System Fish to 2020 examines the pressing problems of fisheries in the context of changing global and national market forces. It reveals that developing countries will shape nearly all growth in the fish industry in the next two decades and describes how new technologies and improved policies in both developed and developing countries can help reduce pressure on wild fisheries; improve management of wild fisheries and raise productivity in aquaculture while ensuring its sustainability. To improve the policy outcomes for the developing countries, the study suggests that policy makers in developed countries should rationalise their food safety system for seafood imports, harmonise and modernise tariff classifications, and offer technical assistance in eco labelling and food safety to small-scale, developing-country fish exporters.
Finally, the focus of the demand side policies in developing countries should be to facilitate South-South trade, to provide public goods to assure domestic food safety, and to help ensure that in developing countries fish products reach those who, from a nutritional standpoint, need them the most.