Exploring alternative futures for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (KST)

• Australian Bureau for Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australia
• Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, China
• World Bank, USA
• National Council of Applied Economic Research, India

How agricultural knowledge, science and technology (KST) reach end-users, particularly farmers, remains poorly understood. While technologies have introduced a variety of improvements and science continues to deliver new knowledge, innovations likely to help many farmers, fishers and others have yet to reap benefits. The gap between the developed and developing worlds can, in part, be narrowed through agricultural productivity improvements reaching poor farmers. In many developing countries, however, the means to increasing production has failed to reach poor farmers, with KST not delivered in a suitable format. An increasing level of uncertainty stemming from a variety of factors; changing socio-political environments, shifts in public and private investment, population and economic growth and avenues or pathways to adoption, mean future delivery of KST will need to be well understood.

Of these factors it is the last-avenues or pathways to adoption of KST-that this research seeks to illuminate. Alternative development pathways to agricultural KST adoption will be developed, catering to likely future trends. The implications of these on policy options and investment strategies, including economy-wide trade and subsidy policies, will be examined. Descriptive narratives to support these scenarios will be used, along with modelling of these scenarios. This will be undertaken in close collaboration with the two year International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) initiative.

The project is providing policymakers with options of alternative policies and investments for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (KST) based on the analysis of alternative development paths and their implications for food security, rural development, and environmental sustainability.

Develop 4-5 alternative development paths or scenarios for agriculture out to 2050 including alternative development paths for agriculture based on Millennium Ecosystem Scenarios as key players in IAASTD initiative
Develop alternative KST policies for the different types of agriculture identified and integrate alternative KST policies with scenarios
Test scenario plausibility and identify components that can be quantified
Quantify drivers and develop productivity and growth trends and other quantifiable parts based on the descriptive scenarios to develop productivity and growth trends for 4-5 scenarios for all models used and for all countries/regions
Adapt models as necessary to identify potential model extensions/disaggregations and develop feedback loops if needed
Carry out model simulations for all scenarios and both national and global/regional models
Readjust model parameters based on feedback between national and global/regional models and descriptive scenarios based on modelling results
Analyse final model results based on final scenarios and combine quantitative with qualitative storyline outcomes
Develop investment implications for the alternative scenarios and KST policies
Analyse with both the global and the India and China models the implications of combined trade and KST policies