The Pacific region is home to about 14 million people. Almost 11 million people live in Papua New Guinea, and the remaining 3 million live on island nations in the Pacific Ocean, with small individual populations, very low population densities and high proportions of people living in rural areas.

Three main themes define the development opportunities in the Pacific region in 2024–25: economic prospects, climate outlook and geopolitical dynamics.

Economic growth is predicted to be moderate in 2024 before increasing in 2025. As business activity resumed after the COVID-19 pandemic, Pacific economies expanded by an average of 3.5% in 2023. Growth of 3.4% is projected in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025.

Rural populations and entire national economies are vulnerable to the ongoing impacts of climate change and recurrent natural disasters. Over the last 50 years, a steady decline in per capita agricultural production has led to a growing dependency on imported food. However, agriculture, fisheries and forestry remain the backbone of the region’s economy and culture, sustaining not only the livelihoods of millions but also playing a crucial role in maintaining food security.

In Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, agriculture accounts for about 35–40% of gross domestic product, while in Samoa, Tonga, Fiji and Vanuatu the contribution from agriculture is smaller, ranging from 12 to 20% of GDP.

The fishing industry contributes up to 10% of GDP throughout the region. However, this figure excludes postharvest activities in line with international standards, so for countries engaged in fish processing and trans-shipment, the economic significance of the fishing sector is greatly underestimated. Fisheries exports are important for about half of the nations in the region, and in 6 nations, fishery products account for approximately 80% or more of all exports. The tangible community and household benefits of fishing, such as nutrition and employment, are derived from coastal resources. In contrast, offshore resources contribute more to GDP, exports and government revenue.

For larger Pacific nations, forestry has been instrumental in driving economic growth, contributing to foreign exchange earnings, job creation and infrastructure development. Consequently, Pacific island countries and territories are confronted with the substantial challenge of balancing sustainable management of limited and diminishing forest and tree resources with the imperative for economic advancement. At the same time the social and environmental needs of growing populations must be addressed.

Drivers of regional collaboration

Pacific region leaders have repeatedly identified 2 overriding threats to the economic development and wellbeing of people in the Pacific region:

• climate change and its impact on food systems
• the rapid rise of the incidence of non-communicable diseases, associated with declining diet quality.

Given these challenges, leaders have strongly emphasised the need for greater resilience in Pacific region food and agriculture systems. While investing in agriculture, fisheries and forestry has been widely recognised as one of the most effective ways of stimulating broad-based economic growth, the effort to increase resilience, rather than increasing productivity, now underpins the agricultural development agenda.

The Pacific Roadmap for Sustainable Development and the 2050 Strategy are national plans that map a pathway for Pacific island countries and territories to meet the ambitions of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In 2024, the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu will present Voluntary National Reviews to highlight their progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and identify areas needing further support.

The Pacific Agriculture and Forestry Strategy for 2024–2050, endorsed by the Pacific Heads of Agriculture and Forestry Services, also addresses the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The strategy outlines a bold vision for a future where agriculture and forestry systems in the Pacific island countries and territories are sustainable, resilient and contribute to the wellbeing of their people, economies and environment.

A valuable platform for driving regional collaboration is the biannual forum of the Heads of Pacific Agriculture and Forestry Services and the Pacific Week of Agriculture and Forestry, which ACIAR draws upon for research partnerships. The next Pacific Week of Agriculture and Forestry is planned to be held in Tonga in 2025 and further empowers Pacific member countries to influence discussions and direct ACIAR’s regional priorities for the subsequent 2 years.

Regional collaboration is enhanced by the close working relationship between ACIAR and the Pacific Community (SPC). SPC is the principal scientific and technical organisation supporting research for development in the region and plays a key role in communicating research outcomes of relevance across the region.

Regional ACIAR program

While acknowledging the individual needs and unique research and development priorities of each partner country in the Pacific region, the scattered nature of the island nations and their small populations mean that many countries cannot address all their challenges and opportunities in agriculture on their own.

ACIAR has been at the forefront of transforming the agricultural landscape in the Pacific region by fostering collaboration between Australian and Pacific institutions to bridge gaps in knowledge, technology and resources. In 2024–25, ACIAR will invest a little more than A$18 million in agricultural research for development across 7 Pacific island countries and Papua New Guinea.

A central focus of ACIAR efforts in the Pacific region in 2024–25 will be fostering regional cooperation in research and capacity development to address shared challenges and opportunities. This collaborative approach encompasses projects on climate-resilient livelihoods, biosecurity, agribusiness development, community-based fisheries management, and integrated food systems and nutrition.

ACIAR aims to develop sustainable agricultural practices that are tailored to the region’s unique environmental and socio-economic conditions by funding and facilitating research collaborations between Australian and Pacific institutions.

Current and proposed projects in the Pacific region, 2024–25