Overview
This project aimed to trial a modelling approach for quickly and efficiently determining the likely best options for changing agricultural practices in ways that deliver both mitigation and adaptation benefits.
This research served as a pilot for applying these methods more broadly and systematically to evaluate sustainable farming systems and other mitigation and adaptation options across many countries using the AgMIP methodology.
- Conducting crop and economic simulations using projections of regional climate conditions and socio-economic data enabled the evaluation of rice production systems under current and future climate conditions in over 6,000 field sites covering eight major rice production districts in Bangladesh.
- Using 2 sets of data to characterise the rice production systems in the districts of Rangpur, Rajshahi, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Lalmonirhat, Kishoreganj, Dinajpur, and Jashore, parameterised the crop and economic simulation models. A farm-level survey data enabled the implementation of the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment whole farm approach in 3 of the districts. A second set of plot-level data enabled the estimating of the yields and economic returns per hectare in the other 5 districts, enabling the assessment of the potential mitigation and adaptation co-benefits and tradeoffs of different rice management practices in the country.
- Climate change reduces farm net returns and increases greenhouse gas emissions, with 45% to 60% of rice producers vulnerable. The study shows that even with positive net economic impacts, households are still highly vulnerable.
- The adoption of Conventional Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) or the System of Rice Intensification with AWD (SRI-AWD) shows potential adoption rates ranging from 48% to 67% depending on the system, scenario, and farm type. Both AWD and SRI show potential co-benefits in reducing GHG emissions, increasing income, and reducing poverty rates in the region.
- SRI shows the largest socio-economic and environmental benefits, but a more thorough evaluation of socio-economic impacts on farmers and communities is needed. AWD and SRI are likely to be more resilient to climate change compared to continuous flood systems.
- The DNDC model is now calibrated and validated for testing MAC-B interventions in Bangladesh. Further research is needed to evaluate potential barriers or limitations to adoption.
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